Economics: Economic Forecasting

Basic knowledge of how to analyze data in time series. Includes controlling for trends, seasonal components, and breakpoints. Techniques are applied to a variety of economic time series, such as inflation, stock prices, unemployment, and gross domestic product. Prerequisites: STAT 1410, ECON 2400, and ECON 2450.

Prereqs enforced by the system: ECON 2400 and ECON 2450 and STAT 1410 PACE students by permission and override

In the Economics of Forecasting, we study models of trends, seasonality, and cycles. We study simple forecasting models that are based solely on past values of a time series, as well as more complex models with other covariates. We learn how to construct forecast intervals, test for structural breaks in time series, combine multiple forecasts, and forecast the volatility of a time series. The techniques are applied to a variety of economic time series, such as inflation, stock prices, unemployment, and gross domestic product.

The course involves lecture, discussion, and problem-solving using computer software in class. We use the software package Stata. A textbook is required. Additional readings are posted on the course Brightspace page. Students should expect to spend 6-8 hours per week on coursework outside of class, and more time for the term paper.

There are frequent homework assignments, a midterm and final exam, and a forecasting project (term paper).